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La Liga Picks: Jornada 16

Elche over LEVANTE

In all competitions Levante are winless in their last six, only managing 2 goals in that span. Capparos' side will want a result against their cross-Valencian rivals, Elche, to avoid any further self-doubt. As someone who considered Levante likely relegation candidates, this poor run of form doesn't come as much of a surprise. Though los Granotes still play some above-average defense, including stellar performances from goalkeeper, Keylor Navas, the only thing holding this team together is Capparós' management. This is his 7th Primera Divisíon club, and 17th club overall -- which is more of an attestation to managerial life in Spain (ahem...Pepe Mel) than Capparós' abilities. But if the Andalusian manager is not able to improve (albeit with tremendous limitations), he might find himself in a familiar position, i.e., Mallorca. Elche are coming off a dramatic 2-2 draw to Villarreal in Copa del Rey, and are progressing in Liga with 14 points in their last 8 matches (though have only managed 1 win in their last six). Escribá's side are particularly susceptible to conceding long-distance shots, something Levante will attempt to exploit, with their proclivity to shoot outside the box. But if Elche's creative players -- Fidel, Coro, and Gil -- can manage to maintain most of the possession, and break down Levante's deep block, los Franjiverdes might come out with 3 points here. Considering my preseason inclination to see Levante relegated, I like Elche here with the away win.

Elche 1 Levante 0

Real Madrid over OSASUNA

Xatívazo, they are calling it, deriving from Alcorcón's stunning defeat of los Blanocs in the 2009-2010 Copa del Rey, or Alcorcónazo, as it was called. Like Alcorcón at the time, Olympíc Xativa are a Segunda Divisíon B side, where they've spent 9 seasons in their 63-year existence -- the remaining seasons spent in Tercera Divisíon and lower-level regional leagues. I won't further indulge everyone's excitement over this, as it was only a 0-0 draw, and will likely end in a 4-0 or 5-0 aggregate -- and not in Xatíva's favor. But it should serve as an argument for a one-legged format in Copa del Rey. Just imagine if this went to penalties, and Real Madrid lost. Madness. But, alas, two-legged ties result in more TV revenue for the LFP. As much as we want to see a more compelling tournament, the possibility of a re-format remains far in the distance. As for the actual Osasuna-Real Madrid match, despite being at El Sadar, I can't imagine Gracia's side picking up points against both Barcelona and Real Madrid in a two month span. There are not enough -azo derivatives in the Spanish football dictionary for that.

Real Madrid 3 Osasuna 0

RAYO VALLECANO draw with Granada

Interesting reports surfacing that not only are Rayo interesting in taking on Leo Baptistäo in a January loan deal, but are also keen to sign 30 year-old Chilean international, Jorge Valvídia, who played with Paco Jémez at Rayo in 2004. AS has further reported that the club will identify 25 players of interest, and pursue 5 of them in the winter transfer window. Not that other clubs won't be active to improve their rosters, but being the smallest-budget club in the Primera Divisíon -- and in administration, mind you -- it is good to see a proactive approach here. Baptistäo would strengthen their front line immensely, and provide an instant goal scoring threat, to couple with Rayo's substantial possession totals. Valvídia would also be an interesting addition, and would fill in nicely in a creative, attacking role, currently occupied by the largely underachieving Alberto Bueno. Of course, all of these transactions have to be approved by Rayo's administrators, especially in Valvídia's case, who will likely demand a higher-than-average salary. Whatever happens, though, it is clear Jémez has demanded reinforcements. How much of those demands can be accommodated remains to be seen.

Rayo Vallecano 1 Granada 1

BARCELONA over Villarreal

From a Barcelona point of view, this can turn out two ways. Villareal are a team that thrives on Barcelona's weakness, i.e., speed and transition-based attacks. Marcelino's side are, in a way, a scaled-down version of Real Madrid. If Barcelona can't impede Villarreal's counter attack, this could turn in to a rather high-strung affair. The alternative outcome is that Martino's side put together a spectacular, well-rounded performance, appeasing cynical fans, and putting criticisms of Barcelona's more direct style at bay...for now. Whatever the case, I'd like to make clear that reckless, ill-conceived judgments of Tata Martino (Guillem Balague, I look at you) are unfair not just on Martino, but the players themselves, who are tying to adapt and improve their skill sets. You're foolish if you think an evolution of tactics was not needed. Martino is doing the best he can, with what he has. Not that Culés are particularly apprehensive of voicing their criticisms of the Rosell administration, but if you want to hate on someone, hate on that donkey-eared clown. Barcelona effectively rotate 4 midfielders for 3 positions, and play in 3 competitions. That is bloody insane. And we want to lament ineffective performances from Iniesta and Xavi, which we perceive to be Martino's fault, rather than an inevitable consequence of nature. Give Martino the tools he needs to succeed, and watch Barça evolve from a sideways-passing, Messi-dependent La Liga contender, to an explosive, run-and-gun Champion's League machine. Well, "run-and-gun" may be a bit hyperbolic, but you get the point.

Barcelona 3 Villarreal 1

MÁLAGA draw with Getafe

#FreePawlowski. Seriously. That is all.

Málaga 1 Getafe 1

Espanyol over ALMERIA

In what was a rather less publicized award, Francisco won Liga BBVA's manager of the month , and deservedly so. Since October 30th, Almeria is 3-2, including a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Valencia at the Mestalla. However after consecutive losses to Real Madrid and Celta Vigo, Almeria sit on 12 points, and in 18th place. Against Espanyol, how Javi Lopez, who's been outstanding this season, deals with Liverpool loanee, Suso, will be key. Lopez leads los Periquitos with 5.1 tackles per game. I expect Lopez to have a very busy night defending Suso, who's immense at taking defenders on, leading Almeria with 2.3 successful dribbles per game. Victor Sanchez will also contribute here, who will likely play deep in Aguirre's preferred double pivot, and look to help on Suso, as the young Spaniard is inclined to cut inside the defense. Overall, I think if Suso is contained (which also affects Rodri's production, who relies on that combination play), I like Espanyol here. And with only 1 win in their last 6 matches, they could sure use the morale boost.

Espanyol 1 Almeria 0

REAL SOCIEDAD over Real Betis

Because of Copa del Rey, there were no La Liga matches last week, meaning Pepe Mel's termination at Real Betis had temporarily escaped my ire. But with the league back in action, and these write-ups active again, let's dive in. To start, here's Pepe Mel's press conerence, following his termination. Even if you don't understand Spanish, I highly recommend you watch, anyway. You can just feel the emotion. Mel lasted around two minutes before abruptly departing in tears. Most striking to me was the backdrop of "Pepe Mel" chants outside the conference room. What you didn't hear or see, but was later reported, was the vandalism outside the Benito Villamarin. Fans were spray-painting things like, "Donde esta, manque pierda" and "Stosic vete." Banners read "Mel si, directiva no." Stones were being thrown at the press conference windows...

All of this translates, essentially, as an emphatic display of non-support for the Real Betis board members. I've never seen anything like it, really. A club dead-last in the league, but with a fan-base so passionately supportive of their manger. I wrote about this previously, and how impactful Mel's social standing within the Betis fan-base was. However what occurred was the opposite, and it is truly staggering to me. Let's be clear -- Pepe Mel is not without blame here. His tendency to over-rotate has resulted in an unsettled core of players who are struggling to associate with one another. But what Mel has achieved, over a three-year period, is far greater. He took the club from Segunda Divisíon to Europa League in two seasons, and how is he rewarded? Well, reportedly, with a one-way ticket to West Ham, London. Bottom line: Pepe Mel was the one manager that could save Real Betis from this situation. Without him, I am less certain. Mucho amor, Mel. Forever a Bético. Gracias.

Real Sociedad 2 Real Betis 1

SEVILLA draw with Athletic Bilbao

Enticing match, this. Sevilla has won 4 straight in the league, and 5 of 6 overall. Athletic, in similar good form, have won 5 of 7, including an immense 1-0 win over league leaders, Barcelona. Valverde has done a remarkable job to re-focus this talented group of Basque players. After three physically demanding years of Marcelo Bielsa, one would have been inclined to pardon a period of recovery. Instead, Athletic seem...rejuvenated. Valverde's style is distinctly different from that of the Argentine's, but so far, more effective. David Cartlidge wrote a very fine piece over at Who Scored on Athletic's resurrection. Per his numbers, Valverde's side, while conceding somewhat in possession and pass accuracy, have improved in numerous areas including shots and goals per game, and are taking 30% of their attacking touches in the final third, compared to 25% last season -- joint 2nd worst in the league. All of this improvement, mind you, playing a less attack-oriented style. Valverde has instilled discipline and organization that is showing it's rewards on both ends of the pitch. In defense, an area of massive concern for los Leones last season, the Basque side has improved from 15.7 shots conceded per game -- 2nd worst in La Liga -- to 11.7 shots conceded per game -- 6th best in La Liga (also courtesy of Cartlidge). Against Sevilla, they will have to remain disciplined, as Emery's side arrive in tremendous form, and are the 4th highest scoring team in the league. I like a draw here, but anticipate a very entertaining affair, from two of the more progressive teams in Spain.

Sevilla 2 Athletic Bilbao 2

Atlético Madrid over Valencia

The most impressive aspect of this Atlético side is the level of competitiveness and intensity demonstrated on a consistent basis. No matter the importance, Simeone's side play every match like it's their last. This got me thinking, though. If I had to come up with a metaphor to Simeone's tactical approach, I think Sun Tzu's The Art of War would be quite accurate. Consider these quotes:

"When the enemy is relaxed, make them toil. When full, starve them. When settled, move them."

"He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all it's ranks."

"Treat your men as you would your own beloved sons. And they will follow you into the deepest valley."

I could go on and on, really. There are excellent ones regarding counter-based attacks, and the importance of controlling spaces. Is Diego Simeone merely the reincarnation of Sun Tzu himself? I don't know. But what I do know, is very few managers posses what Simeone does, that is, the ability to relentlessly motivate, balanced equally with an impeccable understanding of strategy. He knows his team, and he knows his opponent. We all want to be rational about what Atlético can achieve this season, and are understandably hesitant to proclaim them as challengers, whether in La Liga, or in Champion's League. But I can't remember the last time I believed in a team so fiercely. Whatever happens, what Simeone has achieved to this point, is nothing short of remarkable.

Atlético Madrid 3 Valencia 1

Celta Vigo over VALLADOLID

After picking up their first home win of the season, as well as an impressive 1-0 win over Athletic Club in Copa del Rey, Enrique's side will keen to continue their good run of form. Though Rafhina has proven his versatility, as a Barça fan, I very much would like his deployment in central midfield to continue. Rafhina is a classic box-to-box midfielder, but it showing an ability to expand his skill set, at a position of utmost need for Barcelona. He is demonstrating a more improved understanding of the game, as well increased patience, pass accuracy, and overall ability to target passes and link attacks. What stands out to me, though, is Rafhina's physicality. He is averaging 2.4 tackles per game, higher than any of Barcelona's midfielders, excluding Sergio Busquets. This is very interesting in terms of adding a physical element to the Blaugrana midfield, and a more adept presser. With Gerard Deulofeu's recent performances, everyone's talking about what a brilliant loan move that was, developing under Roberto Martinez, and adding the experience of Premier League football. But to me, Rafhina is quietly developing his game rather impressively, in ways that could really wreap benefits long-term.

Celta Vigo 2 Valladolid 1

<em>This does not represent the views of Barca Blaugranes or SBNation</em>

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