FanPost

La Liga Picks: Jornada 18

Jasper Juinen

Atlético Madrid over MÁLAGA

This kind of feels like a pre-penultimate Game of Thrones episode. Just filler material leading up to the Battle of Blackwater Bay; that is, an enormous match-up with La Liga leaders, Barcelona, next week. Simeone's side can conceivably go top of the table depending on Barcelona's result against Elche. But more than likely, both will enter next week's contest level on points (with Barcelona ahead on goal differential), setting up round 3 of an enthralling Cholo-Martino South American special. Going into Málaga, however, Simeone faces an interesting dilemma. There are 5 Atlético players near card suspensions -- Koke, Arda Turan, Filipe Luis, Juanfran, and Raúl Garcia. Gabi, who picked up a yellow against Rayo Vallecano last week, has already been ruled out. Though it contradicts Simeone's partido a partido philosophy, I wouldn't be surprised if at least half of the aforementioned players were excluded from this tie. With news regarding the impending arrival of former Napoli and Bayern player, and Argentinian international, Jose Sosa in January, los Rojiblanco's should be keen to take advantage of their increased depth. Until Blackwater...

Málaga 0 Atlético Madrid 2

Real Betis over VALLADOLID

Maybe because I'm just affectionate toward Béticos, but I couldn't help but feel moved during the 10 minutes ensuing from Real Betis' home loss to Almeria. Garrido, along with his players, remained in center circle, exuding a genuine level of heartbreak and exhaustion. Initially, of the remaining Betis fans, one heard mostly whistles and jeers over yet another defeat -- 10 of their last 12 in La Liga, to be exact. What followed, however, was an adulation of "Sí, se puede! Sí, se puede!" (Yes, we can), and then the Himno del Betis.

(via realbetisoficial)


I think the aim of this, from Garrido's point of view, was to lay a foundation of healing. What Real Betis need more than anything is confidence. Albeit brief, this display of support from the Betis fan-base, I think, can go a long way. Los Verdiblancos haven't won away from the Benito Villmarín since Jornada 30 of last season -- that's 270 days and counting. For what it's worth, though, Real Betis haven't lost to Valladolid in the Primera Division since 2003. With an in-form Guerra, Betis' back-line will have to remain alert. But if Garrido's side can stay disciplined, and improve their finishing at the other end, they might just squeeze by here.

Valladolid 0 Real Betis 1

VALENCIA over Levante

Upon confirmation of Juan Antonio Pizzi's appointment as the new Valencia manager, reports began surfacing of a potential €400m investment from Singapore businessman, Peter Lim. If you recall, Lim attempted a failed bid at Liverpool in 2010, and is a very close friend to Cardiff City owner, Vincent Tan. Lim's proposition to Valencia is simple: repay the debt owed to Bankia, invest €30-40m in players in January, and have the Nou Mestalla completed within the next two years. Lim has imposed a January 15 deadline for Valencia to decide, however, as the Singapore man is keen to begin player acquisitions. Despite the success of foreign investment in the Premier League, Spanish clubs don't exactly have the same history with sudden cash injections. Málaga, one season removed from a near Champion's League semi-final, now face potential relegation. And Racing Santander, currently lingering in Segunda B, may fold entirely, if an investor is not found soon. What Valencia needs is a model of self-sustainability. If players are bought in January, it should be young, talented players that Pizzi can develop long-term, rather than expensive, marquee guys like Edin Djeko, who is going to cost around €40m anyway. Above anything else, I hope Valencia understands this, as Lim's impending investment will have significant after-effects, for good or for worse, and will decide the club's future for a long time to come.

Valencia 2 Levante 0

Granada over ALMERÍA

Going somewhat undetected this year, Granada have the 4th best away record in La Liga, with 14 points in 8 matches. This is a remarkable improvement considering Alcaraz' side were only able to muster 18 points in 19 away matches in the entirety of last season. Though I proclaimed Granada as having one of the best summer transfer seasons in Spain, I was admittedly skeptical, unsure if Piti and Riki could replicate their superb 2012-2013 seasons. Though their production has in fact been subdued, what has made Granada so successful, to this point, is Alcaraz' alternation of tactics. Since switching to a 4-3-3 el Grana are 4-0-4, compared to a 2-2-5 overall record when using a more standard 4-2-3-1. Alcaraz' midfield "trivote" of Rico, Iturra, and Recio have been far more effective in terms of ball retention, though admittedly susceptible to counter attacks, as we saw against Real Sociedad last round. Granada finished with 56% possession and 86% in pass success, and even created an impressive 23 total chances, but 65% of their shots came from outside the box, as the Andalucian side were unable to penetrate la Real's back-line. In defense, though, Granada were unable to match Real Sociedad's pace in transition, as Griezmann and Vela continued to find immense space in the final third. Against Almería, Alcaraz' side will have to be able to probe more effectively inside the box, and also be able to contain Suso and Rodri at the other end.

Almeria 1 Granada 2

SEVILLA over Getafe

I am not a professional journalist, and I only do these write-ups for fun, because I love Spanish football. But I am fully aware of what sensationalism is, and would like to mention an article published by Fox Soccer on Thursday detailing Ivan Rakitic's situation at Sevilla. Headline reads: "Rakitic uncertain over Sevilla future." And the quotes are as follow:

"Now, news does not exist about my future," he told SFC.

"I have returned from my holiday and during these dates I did not use the phone. I will attend a meeting with the Sevilla directors and with calm. After, Ill decide the best option for me in all senses."

It was quite the deceptive act considering Rakitic was nothing but adamant about his desire to remain at Sevilla. After several people, including myself and Tom Conn over at Inside Spanish Football, pointed out the misquotes on Twitter, Fox Soccer updated the article with an additional quote by Rakitic, basically contradicting the entire premise of the piece.

So just like that, no harm done, eh? I am not much a fan of Fox Soccer, and could only make it through about 10 minutes of a recent Barcelona Champion's League match. But at least try to be respectable. Like I said, I do these write-ups for fun, but there is a certain level of commitment that goes into it. So I find it disheartening when I see such irresponsible journalism. Sometimes I think there are more respectable bloggers out there (including the entire staff here at Barca Blaugranes) than there are professional sports writers. The standard needs to be heightened.

Sevilla 3 Getafe 1

BARCELONA over Elche

In 21 total matches Elche have never won at the Camp Nou. It's hard to see that changing now. If the Valencians stand any chance, it may come in the form of Carles Gil, who will look to take advantage of the space behind Jordi Alba. But that's an off-chance, really. I don't see Elche having much possession here, and aren't that lethal on the counter either. I feel like I'm selling Super Fran short here, as I very much admire this squad (in the context of a newly promoted side, that is). But just like Atlético's tie with Málaga, this is hardly more than filler material for next week's mammoth showdown. One development to keep an eye on is whether Messi plays or not, as the four-time Balon D'Or man is set to return from an extended injury recovery. With Copa del Rey looming, Martino may opt to keep Messi rested until midweek, before Atlético on Saturday. Either way, it's good to see la Pulga back in action. Culé or not, football is not the same without him.

Barcelona 3 Elche 0

OSASUNA draw with Espanyol

With rumors circulating that Thievy, Pizzi, and Stuani may all depart in the January transfer window -- due to poor finances among other things -- Aguirre's side should be keen to start off well here. After a very impressive first quarter in which many speculated over a possible European place challenge, los Pericos have slipped into 9th, and have fce further descent if certain key players do not return. Pizzi is replaceable. The former Depor man has yet to score this season, and has fallen out of Aguirre's rotations. Espanyol may decide to just terminate the loan deal, and send Pizzi out to another La Liga side, as the Portugese winger desires playing time going into the World Cup. Thievy and Stuani would be much bigger losses, though. President Joan Collet has confirmed one official offer for Thievy, though at a lesser amount than what Espanyol values the young striker. This offer is rumored to be from Celta de Vigo, by the way, which would be highly enticing from a general fan's perspective. A Thievy/Charles/Mina/Nolito front-line is compelling, to say the least, and has the potential to be the kind of impact signing Luis Enrique needs. Whatever the case, going into El Sadar, I like a draw here. Both sides are more defensive and physically inclined, so I expect a real bullfight (erm, no pun intended, seriously). Victor Sanchez is out for Espanyol which could be a factor, as the defensive midfielder's absence could leave gaps for Oriol Riera, as the former La Masia man (and Lionel Messi's roommate) now has 7 goals in 15 appearances.

Osasuna 1 Espanyol 1

Athletic Bilbao over REAL SOCIEDAD

Undoubtedly the game of the week here. Arguably, these are the two most in-form sides in La Liga, accumulating 22 (SOC) and 21 (ATH) points respectively in their last 9 matches. For Athletic, a win in San Sebastian would take them 7 points up on their Basque rivals, a pretty significant margin with a Champion's League position on the line. However, la Real have only lost once all season at the Anoeta (Atlético Madrid), and are outscoring opponents 21-7 including 17 goals in their last 4 matches. Unfortunately for Arrasate, though, Xabi Prieto and Carlos Martinez have been ruled doubtful with recent injuries. This is a very significant loss. Prieto is vital to la Real's attack, providing midfield-forward combination play, not to mention his leadership on the pitch. Carlos Martinez, likewise, will be missed immensely, as asking Dani Estrada to contain Iker Munaian and Ibai Gomez may be too arduous. Valverde's side are partial to attack down the flanks, especially on the right, with the outstanding partnership of Iraola and Susaeta, but may be keen to re-focus their attack to Estrada's zone. Griezmann and Vela may be the most dangerous players on the pitch, but if Valverde's side can control those spaces, they can come out of this. If both sides were at full strength, I'd fancy a draw here. But with la Real's injuries in key areas, I'm going for a narrow Athletic win.

Real Sociedad 1 Athletic Bilbao 2

REAL MADRID over Celta Vigo

With Real Madrid playing on a Monday night, surely this means Barcelona will be dealt a similar kick-off at some point this season. Not that it affects me much, living in California and all. But it's nice to see the LFP stick a Monday stinker on a club like Real Madrid. If their whole justification for four-day match-periods is TV revenue, then it makes quite a bit of sense, anyway. With Rayo Vallecano-Villarreal immediately following, that's a nice Monday lineup. Much better than four relegation teams. Anyway, Real Madrid should be at full strength for this one, meaning Lucho's side shouldn't be feeling too optimistic about this one. Like always I am curious to see where Rafinha is utilized. He's featured as a right-winger in 2 of Celta's last 4 matches. I write often about Rafinha's development, and it is striking to me that, arguably, these have been his best performances. For anyone who doesn't follow these write-ups regularly, Rafinha's been used in 5 different positions this season, depending on Celta's formation. He is mostly deployed deep, orchestrating attacks and targeting passes. But has been used in a variety of different advanced positions as well, illustrating an immense level of versatility and adaptation. With Deulofeu catching everyone's attention over at Merceyside, Rafinha is quietly developing his skill-set in ways I never anticipated. Very important in relation to his career at Barcelona going forward.

Real Madrid 3 Celta Vigo 1

Villarreal over RAYO VALLECANO

Marcelino's side will be keen to correct their form against a perpetually struggling Rayo side, after a disappointing 2-1 loss to Sevilla right before the holiday break. At half-time, Villarreal had 75% possession, but failed to create many chances, as the absence of Cani proved to have an immense impact. With Bruno back in the line-up, Villarreal were transitioning well, but lacked that final ball. With Cani yet to return to training, Marcelino will have to sweat this one out yet again, though against a weak Rayo side, should have enough to pick up 3 points anyway. Jémez' side will probably win the possession battle as always, but without dangerous forwards or any kind of target man, it's hard to see los Rayitos pulling out of this one. Speaking of forwards, by the way, it was rumored Leo Baptistão was on a round-trip ticket to Vallekas, before it was announced Real Betis were willing to offer up €2.3m in a six-month loan deal (which seems absurd enough, considering Real Betis' financial situation). Rayo can't compete with that, unfortunately. Jémez would love to have his striker back, but without proper resources, January might end more depressingly for Rayo fans than previously thought.

Rayo Vallecano 1 Villarreal 2

<em>This does not represent the views of Barca Blaugranes or SBNation</em>