FC Barcelona has a 43.7% chance of drawing Chelsea in the first stage of the UEFA Champoions League knockouts, a very high number. In fact, it's the most likely matchup between two teams in the competition, as calculated by stats wizard Mister Chip.
Aquí tenéis TODAS LAS PROBABILIDADES de TODOS LOS ENFRENTAMIENTOS que se pueden dar en el sorteo de 1/8 de UCL que se celebrará el lunes. Es el SORTEO MÁS CONDICIONADO EN LA HISTORIA del torneo: Chelsea sólo tiene 3 rivales posibles y un 44% de opciones de jugar contra el Barça. pic.twitter.com/J0kMSjvd4E— MisterChip (Alexis) (@2010MisterChip) December 6, 2017
This is because Chelsea has only three possible opponents: Barça, Paris Saint-Germain, and Besiktas. However, the chances of Barcelona meeting Chelsea are higher because Barcelona only has four other possible opponents, while PSG has five and Besiktas six.
The next two most likely opponents for Barcelona are Shakhtar Donetsk and Basel (14.6% each), followed by FC Porto and Bayern Munich (13.5% each).
Will it be a homecoming for Cesc Fàbregas and Pedro?
While the match against Chelsea is particularly likely, it’s chances are still less than 50%. Put another way, Barcelona is more likely to not draw Chelsea than to draw Chelsea. But Barcelona is much more likely to draw Chelsea than any one of the other teams in particular.
Also, Barcelona is more likely than not going to draw Chelsea OR Bayern Munich. Then again, the chance is not miles better than a coin flip. Either way - strap in, it’s going to be a wild ride!