FC Barcelona can win their group and qualify for the UEFA Champions League knockouts today with a win against Borussia Dortmund. That’s the easiest way for the Catalans to advance. Doing so would put them on 11 points, with Dortmund stuck on 7 and Inter Milan on, at best, 7. In the last match either Dortmund or Inter would only be able to get to 10 points, still one short of Barça.
However, other scenarios exist.
Draw vs. Dortmund, win vs. Inter Milan
A draw for Barcelona would put them on 9 points and Dortmund on 8. Inter would once again, have at best 7. This would still have Barcelona leading the group, meaning if they were to win against Inter, they would win the group outright.
Draw vs. Dortmund, lose vs. Inter Milan
However things could get dicey in that last match if they drew today. If Inter were to win both of their remaining games, that would catapult them to 10 points, with Barça stuck on 9. Then, Dortmund could knock Barcelona out by winning against Slavia Prague and getting to 11. Alternatively, Dortmund losing or drawing would mean that even with a loss against Inter, Barça would be through, albeit as runners-up. In the case of a BVB loss, Barcelona would have 9 points and Dortmund still 8. However, if the Germans drew, that would put both teams on 9. Still, Barcelona own the tiebreaker having won the first meeting between the sides.
Draw vs. Dortmund, draw vs. Inter Milan
Two draws would put Barcelona on 10 points and secure qualification. Dortmund would have at least 8 points, but potentially 11 if they won the last game. If Barcelona draw twice, and Dortmund win the last game, both sides go through with the Germans as group winners. However, a draw or loss by Dortmund would allow Barcelona through as group winners.
Lose vs. Dortmund, win vs. Inter Milan
Barcelona and Dortmund would qualify. Dortmund would be the group winners if they won the last match, but Barcelona would win the group if Dortmund failed to win against Slavia.
Lose vs. Dortmund, draw vs. Inter Milan
Barcelona would qualify, but only as runners-up.
Lose vs. Dortmund, lose vs. Inter Milan
Barcelona would be out if Inter won against Slavia today. However, the Blaugrana would still qualify if Inter lost against Slavia. A draw between the Italians and the Czechs would lead to a tiebreaker, if then Inter beat Barcelona. Inter would qualify if they won by more than one goal against the Catalans. However, if Inter won by precisely one goal, we would go further down the tiebreaker rabbit hole. Barcelona could still do it through away goals, or goal difference, or disciplinary points, or even the UEFA club coefficient. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.