FC Barcelona remains the favorite to land the signing of Brazilian superstar Neymar, but it wasn’t always the case.
In fact, you can now chart the progress of the evolving odds of where Neymar would sign with a new visualization from Oddschecker. Even if you have no intention of betting, these markets do have some predictive value, so it’s interesting to have a look:
On July 1st, Oddschecker gave Barcelona a chance just shy of 60% to land the Paris Saint-Germain star, with Real Madrid being given less than a 5% chance. But things have changed, sometimes wildly, in the nearly two months since.
Barça’s chances steadily decreased as Madrid’s increased, until early August, when Madrid actually became the favorite. Barcelona fell to about 15% while Madrid shot up to an almost 40% chance. Partially the reason for that may have been stories we published such as this one which said that PSG preferred to sell to Madrid than to Barcelona.
However, things flipped again when Barcelona’s chances went way up on August 13th to almost 70%, and Madrid’s fell to just above 20%. This was probably because Barcelona staff was in Paris to try to close the deal that day. However, these talks failed to close the operation, which meant Barça went back down to just over 35% chance.
There was another notable bump on the 21st, when chances for Barcelona went to better than 50% again. Why? Probably because Barcelona sent two bids for the Brazilian that day. However, they were turned down.
Real Madrid retook the lead on the 23rd, with their best moment being when they led by around 35% to Barcelona’s near 15%. One possible reason would be that stories told that Madrid had visited PSG and were looking to land the Brazilian after the Parisians had turned down Barcelona’s offer. They said Madrid had growing confidence they could seal the deal, but it wasn’t to be.
Yet another volatile change occurred over the last few days which have seen the odds flip yet again. Barcelona is now at 50%, while Madrid is only at 14.3%, the lowest it has been since the beginning of the month. The reason was probably because Barça held a meeting with PSG over Neymar, with reports that at least the Catalans and Neymar’s entourage felt optimism that a deal could be hashed out. But alas, an agreement was not reached, yet Barça remain favorites because talks have not broken down. We will see what’s next for this particular transfer saga.